Clay Shirky on predicting the future
In a recent feature on Clay Shirky (focusing on his new book, Cognitive Surplus) Guardian contributor Decca Aitkenhead analyzes Shirky’s famous optimism about Internet culture.
According to Aitkenhead, the new book “argues that the popularity of online social media trumps all our old assumptions about the superiority of professional content, and the primacy of financial motivation. It proves… that people are more creative and generous than we had ever imagined, and would rather use their free time participating in amateur online activities such as Wikipedia–for no financial reward–because they satisfy the primal human urge for creativity and connectedness.”
Shirky argues this always a good thing; Aitkenhead describes herself as a “kneejerk” cynic of these trends, a “techno-luddite bewildered by the exhibitionism of online social networking” and “troubled by its juvenile vacuity.”
Shirky responds:
I have the amiably simple-minded view of this stuff you would expect from an American, which is that I think freedom is good, full stop. So therefore I think I’m probably constitutionally incapable of seeing a massive spread in those freedoms as being anything other than salutary for society.
And adds, about his luck at predicting the future as an optimist:
[The] thing I’d say about optimism is this. If we took the loopiest, most moonbeam-addled Californian utopian internet bullshit, and held it up against the most cynical, realpolitik-inflected scepticism, the Californian bullshit would still be a better predictor of the future. Which is to say that, if in 1994 you’d wanted to understand what our lives would be like right now, you’d still be better off reading a single copy of Wired magazine published in that year than all of the sceptical literature published ever since.












